{"id":4036,"date":"2026-07-25T08:03:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T07:03:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/21percent.org\/?p=4036"},"modified":"2026-08-25T19:29:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T18:29:39","slug":"the-tail-tells-the-story-extreme-textual-overlap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/21percent.org\/?p=4036","title":{"rendered":"The Tail Tells the Story: Extreme Textual Overlap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is now a lot of press coverage of in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetimes.com\/uk\/education\/article\/jason-arday-plagiarism-cambridge-nathan-cofnas-q8q6f8lpx\" title=\"The Times\">The Times<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/2026\/07\/24\/cambridges-diversity-poster-boy-in-plagiarism-row\/\" title=\"the Telegraph \">the Telegraph <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailymail.com\/news\/article-16003587\/Plagiarism-jealousy-youngest-black-professor-Cambridge-life-story.html\" title=\"the Mail\">the Mail<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a mathematician&#8217;s or programmer&#8217;s perspective, we highlight an outstanding piece of work by Alexey Titorenko, available to download <a href=\"https:\/\/titorenko.github.io\/analysethat\/posts\/thesis-overlap-analysis\/\" title=\" here\"> here<\/a>. It presents a fully reproducible, embedding-based analysis of the PhD theses by Arday (2015) and Zwozdiak-Myers (2009).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wonderfully, the complete pipeline is included end-to-end: extraction, segmentation, embedding, control construction, Poisson testing, provenance classification, and extent estimation. The code automatically retrieves all source documents from their respective repositories. Equally remarkably, the entire process runs on a standard CPU in approximately twenty minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The two PhD theses have considerable overlap.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The signal is in the tail, and it survives controls. Against two independent education doctorates matched on discipline and partially on topic, the focal pair shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>9 near-identical sentence pairs&nbsp;(cosine \u2265 0.999) in 11.09M comparisons, against&nbsp;<strong>1<\/strong>&nbsp;in 34.29M control comparisons &#8211; and that single control match is the standard thesis declaration (\u201cThis work has not previously been presented for an award at this, or any other, university\u201d).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>179 sentence pairs sharing 12 or more consecutive identical words&nbsp;(107 spatially independent blocks), against an expected 0.32 under the null &#8211; an exact count over all 11.09M pairs, no embedding model involved. Longest shared run: 63 words.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conditional on high semantic similarity, cross-document pairs share a median run of&nbsp;11.5 identical consecutive words, versus 4.0 and 7.5 for sentences&nbsp;<em>within<\/em>&nbsp;each thesis &#8211; that is, among semantically matched sentences, the two documents phrase shared ideas alike more often than either thesis does when restating itself.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under the most conservative assumptions available, the probability of observing this pattern under independent composition is&nbsp;5.7 \u00d7 10\u207b\u2074; on the central estimate of the null rate,&nbsp;8 \u00d7 10\u207b\u00b9\u00b9. &#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>[From Titorekno&#8217;s GitHub page]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is very unlikely this happened independently (specifically one in&nbsp;a&nbsp;one-in-100-billion chance&nbsp;of happening).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The origin of the extreme textual overlap perhaps remains unclear &#8212; but both Liverpool John Moores University and Cambridge University have got to come up with better explanations than they have done so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And for Cambridge University&#8217;s senior management, there are serious questions as to why this is playing out so damagingly in public, since they have known about it for a number of years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is now a lot of press coverage of in The Times, the Telegraph and the Mail. From a mathematician&#8217;s or programmer&#8217;s perspective, we highlight an outstanding piece of work by Alexey Titorenko, available to download here. It presents a fully reproducible,\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is now a lot of press coverage of in The Times, the Telegraph and the Mail. From a mathematician&#039;s or programmer&#039;s perspective, we highlight an outstanding piece of work by Alexey Titorenko, available to download here. 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